Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Ian Desmond

Many people who do not enjoy watching the game of baseball cite the incredibly slow pace of the game as one of the top reasons for their disinterest. Compared to basketball or hockey, where there is non-stop end-to-end action, baseball meanderalong to these observers. Those who enjoy watching baseball will often defend the game as one of skill, where players require both physical and mental strength to succeed. No doubt hitters in the box do not feel the game is slow as they try to catch up to a 99mph fastball while anticipating an offspeed breaking pitch. The hitting skill in baseball is thought by many to be the hardest one in all of sports.

With that said, team batting coaches and the overall team batting approach can have a marked effect of the success of hitters. Jose Bautista credits Cito Gaston for much of his unprecedented success in Toronto, for example. The Washington Nationals hitting coach is named Rick Eckstein. He has been in this role since late in the 2008 season, and has seen his share of ups and downs over that span. Early in 2012, the Nationals as a team were struggling at the plate, frequently leaving their elite starting pitchers and their efforts out to dry. Nationals manager Davey Johnson defended his hitting coach, in part pointing out numerous injuries to everyday offensive contributors. Johnson and Eckstein realized a major issue in their team batting approach, summarized well by this quote from Johnson on MLB.com in mid-August:

"To a man, we got a little too much concerned about hitting the ball the other way," Johnson said. "I think the regime before liked everybody to go the other way. We really couldn't handle fastballs [inside]. We didn't hit the ball where it was pitched. We have the talent to hit the ball where it was pitched, but we were a little defensive. ... We had the book on us. ... 'Pound them in with hard stuff,' and we weren't able to do much. 

"Rick Eckstein has done a great job and got them to stay inside, hit the ball where it was pitched. They don't have to cheat to get to the fastball. Just become better hitters. We are not 100 percent where we need to be. We still have certain hitters who still have lapses going back. I call it a defensive swing, a longer swing, when we face a really good pitcher. Unless we are in that attack mode, we can be pitched to."

We can investigate whether this new approach is paying off for Nationals' hitters. As a quick test, we can determine which team as a whole has improved the most on runs created per fastball faced. A look at this leaderboard shows the Nats have improved the most of all MLB teams, with their team wFB/C up 0.7 in 2012 to date than in 2011. To select one prime example for a more thorough investigation from the team, we can look no further than Ian Desmond. The Nationals' shortstop has followed up two consecutive lackluster years with a breakthrough season in 2012:
Ian Desmond Batting Statistics, 2010-2012 (to date)
Desmond has significantly increased his slugging percentage, taking himself from a well below-average hitter to a well-above average hitter in 2012. We can assess whether he has succeeded in applying the change in approach taken by Johnson and Eckstein by examining his performance on inside fastballs. Consider the following heat maps showing Desmond's run generating performance on fastballs only in both 2011 and 2012:
Ian Desmond, Heat Map of Performance on Fastballs only, 2011
Ian Desmond, Heat Map of Performance on Fastballs only, 2012
While Desmond has improved across the board, note the complete turnaround of his coverage of the inside part of the plate (these heat maps are shown from the catcher/umpire point of view, and Desmond bats right-handed). He has hit the inside fastball at a scorching level in 2012, after having the inside part of the plate be his major weakness the previous season. It would appear he has taken Eckstein's philosophy to heart in 2012 and is attacking the baseball when it is pitched inside.

While not pleasing to those who already find baseball a slow game to watch, another observation is that Desmond has joined his middle infield partner as the players who have slowed down their pitch-to-pitch pace the most in 2012:
Slower Pace Leaders, all Qualified Hitters, 2012 (to date) compared to 2011
Whether or not this change is also part of the Nationals' new hitting approach, the added time between pitches seems to suit Desmond. Espinosa has produced nearly a carbon copy this season as 2011, so his slower pace has not seemed to pay dividends like it has for Desmond. As baseball has a large mental component to it, Desmond may have added a new preparation technique between each pitch that is helping him implement the new hitting strategy developed by the Nationals. He has also seemingly made a conscious decision to see more pitches, and pitchers have realized this, as Desmond's F-Strike% is a league-leading 71.9%, up from 61.2% in 2011. While falling behind in the count is never desirable, Desmond may be getting a better read on the pitcher by seeing a pitch to generate more success later in the plate appearance.

Hitting a baseball is a difficult skill to master. It is perhaps the hardest thing to accomplish in sports. Ian Desmond would tell you this, and no doubt would claim a subtle change in approach can drastically alter your hitting success.

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[Credit and thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Heat Maps for data upon which this analysis is based]

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